Tariffs, Trade Wars & Turbulence: The New Reality for BC Housing
If there’s one thing that can shake up an already stressed housing market, it’s a tariff war. And right now, that’s exactly what we’re in.
The US slapped 25% tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum this spring. Canada hit back with nearly $30 billion in retaliatory tariffs. The result? Higher costs, shaky confidence, and a whole lot of uncertainty in BC real estate.
Why Tariffs = Housing Headaches
Brendon Ogmundson, Chief Economist at BCREA, calls tariffs “economic self-sabotage.” Here’s why they sting the housing market:
- Higher costs for steel, lumber, aluminum = pricier builds
- Delayed or canceled projects as developers rethink timelines
- Costs passed to buyers (because builders aren’t eating the loss)
- Renovations & suites slowed = fewer rentals when we need them most
Bottom line: tariffs bloat costs at every step of the housing chain.
New Builds: Pulling Back
Developers are already hitting pause.
- Project launches down 70% compared to last year (MLA Canada)
- Boffo Developments canceled a condo project and refunded deposits
- 2,500 unsold condos now sitting in Greater Vancouver
Some builders are getting creative with perks—rent-to-own offers, decorating budgets, even free beer—but demand is still weak.
Resale Market: Lots of Listings, Not Enough Buyers
Despite falling interest rates, buyers aren’t rushing in.
- Sales down 23.6% year-over-year in April
- Inventory up nearly 30%—the most since 2014
- Prices down only slightly: detached -0.7%, townhomes -2.9%, condos -2.0%
For buyers ready to act? This is a rare window of opportunity: more choice, less competition, and sellers who are motivated to deal.
The Silver Lining: Rate Cuts
The Bank of Canada has already cut rates twice this year, now sitting at 2.75%, with more cuts expected.
Lower mortgage costs could:
- Bring more buyers off the sidelines
- Fuel a short-term affordability window
- Spark the next rebound in prices
If you’re waiting for the perfect time, rate cuts may shrink that window fast.
What’s Next?
Expect volatility.
- Sellers: be realistic—overpricing won’t cut it in this market
- Buyers: opportunities are here, but timing matters
- Investors: short-term flips will be tough, but long-term plays look promising
- Supply: if new builds keep stalling, the real crunch could hit in 18–36 months
The Takeaway
Tariffs are a lose-lose game. They jack up costs, stall projects, and rattle confidence. For BC real estate, that means more turbulence ahead—until policymakers change course.
But here’s the flip side: uncertainty creates opportunity. And for buyers ready to move, this could be your chance to make a smart play before the next rebound hits.